Visa Bulletin Predictions by DOS – September 2011

On September 9, 2011, the Department of State released the Visa Bulletin for October, the first month of FY-2012. DOS also provided an estimate of visa number availability over the next few months. In particular, DOS’ Visa Office emphasized the rapid forward movement of China and India EB-2, but cautioned that the trend may slow or even reverse course if visa demand catches up in these two categories.

It is important to note that although DOS is the official authority over visa number allotment, their prediction is still an estimate. The demand for visa numbers will always fluctuate, and as a result, the Visa Office must adjust cut-off dates accordingly.

Below is DOS’ visa bulletin prediction for the coming months:

  • EB1: Current
  • EB2:
    • Worldwide: Current
    • EB2 China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
    • Mexico: Current
    • Philippines: Current
  • EB3:
    • Worldwide: up to one month
    • China: one to three weeks
    • India: up to two weeks
    • Mexico: up to one month
    • Philippines: up to one month
  • EB4: Current
  • EB5: Current
  • Family-Sponsored:
    • F1: three to six weeks
    • F2A:three to six weeks
    • F2B:one to two weeks
    • F3: one to two weeks
    • F4: up to one month

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