Well, so far I’ve made only one prediction on future visa bulletins, and failed. So I told myself to forget about the idea and just focus on something I know better, like predicting when an I-485 will be approved (jk).
But people keep asking questions. They are apparently not satisfied with the official DOS predictions on cut-off dates movement. So I’m going to take another stab. The only difference is that instead of using the Visa Office’s visa usage report, I’ll just rely on my own tools. If you’ve been to our visa bulletin page, you know that we keep track of cut-off date progress on a chart. Over the past two years, the EB2 curves (2011 and 2010) look a lot like each other. EB3 categories are all over the place, but for India and China, the lines are nearly flat. So here it goes:
August 2011 Visa Bulletin Prediction:
EB2-India: June 8, 2007
EB2-China: June 8, 2007
EB3-India: May 15, 2002
EB3-China: August 1, 2004
EB3-ROW: November 1, 2005
In place of a legal disclaimer, I would like to include a quote from Scott Adams, author of the Dilbert series, during an interview with BNET’s Geoffrey James:
James: What method do you use to forecast trends?
Adams: There are, in general, two ways to predict the future. For example, you can use horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, crystal ball, and so forth. Collectively, these are known as the “nutty methods.” Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as “a complete waste of time.” While all these approaches have their advantages, I find it’s a lot easier and economical to simply make stuff up.