December 2015 Visa Bulletin and Future Cutoff Date Predictions

The Department of State has released the Visa Bulletin for December 2015. The table below is a quick overview of the “Final Action (Approval)” cut-off dates and movement from the previous month, for the backlogged employment-based preferences. For all other categories, including family sponsored, please visit our Visa Bulletin Toolbox for more information.

Chargeability Preference Cut-off Date (Y-M-D) Movement (Days)
China Second (EB2) 2012-02-01 0
India Second (EB2) 2007-6-1 304
ROW Third (EB3) 2015-9-1 17
China Third (EB3) 2012-4-15 105
India Third (EB3) 2004-4-22 21
Mexico Third (EB3) 2015-9-1 17
Philippines Third (EB3) 2007-8-1 47

The Department of State also published their predictions on monthly cutoff date movement for the next few months. These represent the Visa Office’s estimates on new cut-off dates for the next few visa bulletins. Of course visa demand and other factors may change, and the actual visa bulletins may differ from the following predictions, but they’ve been fairly accurate in the past.

The predictions painted a bleak picture for China EB-2: virtually no forward movement for the next few months. So China-EB2 will likely have a cutoff date around February, 2012 for three or four months. China EB-3, on the other hand, is predicted to advance rapidly for a few months. The forward movement may stop or even retrogress beginning April, 2016.

DOS also predicted that India EB-2 will advance up to eight weeks monthly for the next few months. India EB3 is also going to move forward, albeit at a slower pace of up to three weeks monthly.

  • EB1: Current
  • EB2:
    • Worldwide: Current
    • China: Forward movement of this date during FY-2015 has resulted in a dramatic increase in demand. Little, if any movement is likely during the coming months.
    • India: Up to eight months.
  • EB3:
    • Worldwide: The rapid forward movement during FY-2015 was expected to generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. If such demand fails to materialize in the near future it will be necessary to begin advancing this cut-off date.
    • China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement will result in increased demand which will require "corrective" action as early as April.
    • India: Up to three weeks.
    • Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
    • Philippines: Four to six weeks.
  • EB4: Current
  • EB5: The category will remain "Current" for most countries. China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.
  • Family-Sponsored worldwide dates:
    • F1: Three to six weeks
    • F2A: Three to six weeks
    • F2B: Up to one month
    • F3: Two to four weeks
    • F4: Three or four weeks

To see the progress of cutoff date movement please use visit our Visa Bulletin Tracker, which shows more than 10 years of visa bulletin data in one graphic chart and allows you to zoom in/out, and select any categories for comparison

Visa Bulletin Tracker

Visa Bulletin for October 2015: New Format with Dual Charts

The October 2015 Visa Bulletin marks a significant change to the process of determining visa availability. Under the legacy system, there is one cutoff date for each category: You will not be able to submit an application, or if you already have a pending case, it will not be approved, unless your priority date is earlier than the cutoff date set forth in the visa bulletin. The new format, however, includes two visa bulletin charts:

  • One chart contains cutoff dates for Final Action (for example, approval). This is essentially the old visa bulletin where a visa number is officially allocated to a pending case, thus making it eligible for approval.
  • A second chart contains cutoff dates for Filing Applications. What it means is that if your priority date is earlier than the “filing” cutoff date, you may submit your application even if there is no visa number available yet.

The new “filing” chart offers major benefits because it should typically contain cut-off dates much later than the “approval” visa bulletin. As a result, many people will be able to submit their adjustment of status applications (I-485) earlier than under the old, one-chart visa bulletin system.

Take India EB-2 for example, the “approval” cutoff date for October is 01MAY05, but “filing” cutoff date is 01JUL09. So for thousands of applicants whose priority dates fall between 01MAY05 and 01JUL09 – a span of more than four years – they will be allowed to file I-485 starting October 1, 2015. Under the old system, they would have to wait much longer for the “approval” dates to advance before they could do so.

Although filing an I-485 early doesn’t mean you’ll get a green card sooner, there are still many advantages:

  • Apply for an Employment Authorization Document (EAD), which may be approved by USCIS rather quickly.
  • Apply for a travel document such as Advance Parole, which in some cases provides more flexibility for travelling overseas than using a visa.
  • Take advantage of AC-21 portability.
  • Obtain certain benefits for spouse and dependent children

The new “filing” visa bulletin should also help the Department of State and USCIS to streamline the visa allocation process. By allowing people to file early, for some categories years early, they will have more accurate data to estimate visa demand and thus establish cutoff dates in a more efficient way. In the future we may see less fluctuation from month to month, or at least, a reduction in the wild swings of cutoff date movement.

The dual-chart visa bulletins apply to both employment-based and family-sponsored categories. So in each visa bulletin, there are actually four charts or tables: Employment Final Action (Approval), Employment Filing, Family Final Action and Family Filing.

The October 2015 Visa Bulletin was originally published on September 9, 2015. On September 25, DOS revised it and modified a total of five cut-off dates (all for “filing”). The updated version supersedes the original one, so if you’re preparing to file I-485 next month, please make sure you’re using the revised cutoff dates.

USCIS Transformation Program: One Billion Over Budget, Four Years Behind Schedule

Remember the transformation program USCIS launched years ago to convert their paper filing system to electronic filing? Well, after 10 years and billions of dollars, it is far from done. The U.S. Government Accountability Office recently released a report detailing their progress, and it isn’t pretty:

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ (USCIS) currently expects that its
Transformation Program will cost up to $3.1 billion and be fully deployed no later
than March 2019, which is an increase of approximately $1 billion and delay of
over 4 years from its initial July 2011 baseline. In March 2012, the program
began to significantly change its acquisition strategy to address various technical
challenges (see table).

So in short, the USCIS program is $1 billion over budget and 4 years behind schedule. If this were to happen in the private sector, I don’t know how many companies would be able to survive after a failure of this magnitude. USCIS initially awarded the contract to IBM, which was never mentioned in the GAO report, but later switched to other suppliers. Hopefully this time they can get their act together and accomplish something.

USCIS I-485 Statistics – January to March, 2015

United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) published the latest performance data of I-485 Applications to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status. Below is a summary of the total number of I-485 cases by category. For more detailed statistics including service center and field office data, please click here.

 I-485 Applications Performance Data (1/1/2015 – 3/31/2015) : Received Approved Denied Pending
Family-based 71,400 58,697 8,203 188,987
Employment-based 30,846 26,232 1,667 122,812
Humanitarian-based 37,846 35,802 1,162 94,316
Others 6,240 6,440 784 16,964
Total 146,332 127,171 11,816 423,079


  • Family-based: Applications based on a family relationship with an LPR (legal permanent resident, a.k.a. green card holder) or a U.S. citizen.
  • Employment-based: Applications based on employment status, or as an entrepreneur to create a commercial enterprise.
  • Humanitarian-based: Applications covered by Refugees & Asylum, Battered Spouse, Children & Parents and other special humanitarian programs.
  • Received: The number of new applications received and entered into a case-tracking system during the reporting period.
  • Approved: The number of applications approved during the reporting period.
  • Denied: The number of applications denied, terminated, or withdrawn during the reporting period.
  • Pending: The number of applications still awaiting a decision as of the end of the reporting period.
  • Source: Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Performance Analysis System (PAS) , March 2015

Visa Bulletin Tracker – All New Interactive Chart

We’ve just published a new visa bulletin tracker – an interactive chart showing all cutoff dates for all EB2 and EB3 categories, for the past 10 years. Our goal is to provide an easier way for applicants to see the full history of cutoff date movement for their category. The chart is not intended to be a visa bulletin prediction tool, but hopefully with the overall trend it’s showing, along with other information such as DOS’ own prediction, one can have a general idea of visa availability in the coming months.

The visa bulletin chart contains data for all countries in EB-2 and Eb-3. Each series (line) represents one category, and can be turned on or off by clicking on the legend. If you’re using a mobile phone or tablet, simply tap on the color squares to show/hide lines. To zoom in, drag on the chart to select an area so you can see more details. Right click will reset the chart to default. Cutoff dates will appear in tooltips when you mouse over the lines or tap on them if you’re on mobile.

EB1, EB3 Others, EB4, and EB5 are not included in the visa bulletin tracker to avoid making an already busy chart too crowded, but cut-off date for these categories are always available from our Visa Bulletin Toolbox page.

Visa Bulletin Tracker

Visa Bulletin Tracker

Redesign of

If you’re a returned visitor to our website today, you’ll see a completely different layout and design. With weeks of hard work, we’ve now made fully responsive. What it means is that whether you’re using a smartphone, a tablet or a desktop/laptop computer, you will have the same viewing experience because the website automatically adapts to your screen’s size: No more need to zoom and drag just to read the entire page. It is also compatible with all modern browsers including Google Chrome, Safari, Firefox and IE 9+, and will display beautifully on Windows, iOS or Android devices.

Other than its look and feel, the new website should also load faster thanks to page speed improvements. CSS, Javascript and images are optimized to provide a better surfing experience. Navigation menu is also redesigned to provide a more touch-friendly interface.

Your favorite tools all remain intact. The green card tracker, visa bulletin toolbox and immigration flow chart all function exactly the same as before.

Having said all this, I personally will miss our old website. After all, I designed it from the ground up and wrote every line of code to make it beautiful, clean and functional. But things have changed. Nowadays a significant portion of our visitors come through a phone or pad, so we have to adapt too. I hope you like the new design, especially if you’re a mobile user. And if you do see a glitch or have a suggestion, please don’t hesitate to let us know.

new immigrationroad website

How to Deal with Solicitors Knocking on the Door

Below is a message from the San Diego Police Department addressing residents’ concerns about solicitors in the neighborhood. Although some information may be specific to the city, or to California, it’s still useful to the general public in many ways. I’ve lived in San Diego for many years and never knew solicitors were required by law to show their police-issued picture ID when they go from door to door! I hope I never have to use this – I always politely turn them away – but if it comes down to it, I’m sure most solicitors who knock on my door will walk away if I ask about their Police Registration Card.

Dealing with solicitors can be uncomfortable and in some cases, dangerous. This is especially true for new immigrants who may be more likely to fall victim to fraudulent activities due to lack of experience or their language barrier. The tips offered below will surely come in handy when you hear the knock next time.

Solicitors, Peddlers, and Interviewers
Officer Matt T. from San Diego Police Department

It has come to the attention of our department more and more of late that peddlers, interviewers and solicitors are canvassing our city streets. In tough economic times, the water is warm and conditions are ripe for fraud, elder abuse, financial crimes and just downright falsely represented charities that are tantamount to outright theft. Let’s dive into the waters headfirst and lay some terms out for understanding.

As the City’s Municipal Code defines it; “A solicitor is a person who goes from house to house, business to business, without an appointment, or to one house, street, sidewalk, alley, plaza, park, public place, by foot or vehicle, who sells or solicits for value of goods. They make work for themselves or for a business.” San Diego Municipal Code 33.1401 And most importantly, “All persons working as interviewers, solicitors, peddlers or vendors of merchandise, services, magazines, etc. are required to obtain a Police Registration Card. When operating, the card MUST be displayed on the front of their person, and they MUST exhibit the card to any peace officer upon demand. (San Diego Municipal Code 33.1402)

This card is white in color, has a photo, tracking number, and identifying information along with official City of San Diego background /seal. Our SDPD Permits and Licensing Unit grants these passes after a background check, fingerprinting and collection of fees. If a person at your door is displaying a City ID, you can considerably better in dealing with them should you choose to. But do not forget, it is a legal requirement.

It is unlawful for ANY person to ring the doorbell of a residence, rap or knock on any door, or create any sound in a manner calculated to attract attention for the purpose of engaging in activity as a solicitor or interviewer if the occupants have posted on the premises “No solicitors,” “No soliciting,” “No solicitors or peddlers,” or any similar language clearly denying invitation and entry to solicitors. San Diego Municipal Code 33.1410

No person under 14 years old will be issued a Registration Card, and persons under 18 must have a work permit from their school. And a seldom known fact is that California Civil Code Section 1689 et. Seq., requires solicitors to provide a contract for buyers allowing a “3-day cooling-off period” for sales of $25 or more.

NO PERSON shall operate as a solicitor between the hours 8 p.m. and 9 a.m., except by appointment. San Diego Municipal Code 33.1410 California Penal Code, section 532(d), makes it a misdemeanor to make false representation in solicitation of charitable contributions.

So what does this all mean? In short, it is highly unlikely for a person who knocks on your door to be legitimately operating and in compliance with our Municipal Code and the State Laws. We as a Police Department feel strongly about identifying and contacting these persons, as a percentage of these are merely posing as solicitors for purposes of criminal enterprise. What better way to gauge home security, vacant status, yard security and valuables located within a home then knocking on the doors and looking in the windows, ostensibly to sell items or services? These solicitors are the smoke before the fire. Burglary series in our areas of San Diego have been canceled by arresting solicitor crews. Our recommended response is as follows:

When home and someone knocks on the door without appointment, we recommend you acknowledge the knock and let them know you are home. People have been surprised when a burglar using soliciting as a front thinks no one is home and enters the home after getting no answer on a knock. Ask the purpose of the visit and observe through a peephole. If it is a solicitor, ask to see the “Issued City License/ ID card of the person.” Do not open the door if it isn’t present or even if it is and you feel uncomfortable. Inform the person of your intention to call the police if they don’t have a license to solicit and then place a call to our non-emergency number of 619-531-2000. We would like you to report these persons as potential “casers” or suspects. Very rarely are good services and reputable companies using door-to-door solicitation as legitimate means of commerce. More than likely it will be someone using a ruse or scam to separate you from your money. All the stories of “helping get to a college trip” or “for poor children / women/ etc…” are by and large fictitious and should in no way be encouraged with your hard earned money. We regularly encounter vans full of out of state persons with criminal history staying in our motels / hotels for just this purpose.

Don’t be victims; call the police to report this activity. If the person refuses to leave or tries the door handle, call 911. Help us keep the streets clear of scams, fraud and burglary. Your vigilance is greatly appreciated. As you know now, a litany of laws exist for just this reason, and for good reason. The direct correlation between unauthorized soliciting and crime are well documented. Thanks for asking the question on the minds of so many!

International Students Statistics – April, 2014

The Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement recently released statistics on foreign students currently studying in the United States. As of April 1, 2014:

  • There are currently 1,015,178 F & M students studying in the United States
  • There are currently 188,382 J-1 exchange visitors in the United States
  • 29% of all F & M students in the United States originate from China
  • 56% of all F & M students in the United States are males
  • There are 351,397 F & M students studying in science, technology, engineering and mathematics
    (STEM) fields in the United States
  • 85% of the F & M students in the United States originate from Asia
  • 43% of all F & M STEM students study engineering

Below is a graph showing the top 10 countries that send the most students to the U.S. As to destination, California, New York and Texas lead all states in the number of international students enrolled.

Foreign Students by Citizenship