Visa Bulletin Predictions

Many people try to predict cutoff dates for the upcoming visa bulletin. It has become a social game on discussion forums. Frankly, unless you are the Department of State who has up-to-date demand vs. supply information, you can only guess. And your guess is as good as mine.

If you are so curious that you must come up with visa bulletin predictions, we have some tools that may help you.

DOS Visa Bulletin Predictions Made in February 2014:

The Department of State published their predictions on monthly cutoff date movement for early 2014:

  • EB1: Current
  • EB2:
    • Worldwide: Current
    • China: Three to five weeks
    • India: No forward movement
  • EB3:
    • Worldwide: This cut-off date has been advanced over four and one half years since last spring in an effort to generate new demand. After such a rapid advance of a cut-off date applicant demand for number use, particularly for adjustment of status cases, can be expected to increase significantly. Once such demand begins to materialize at a greater rate it could have a significant impact on this cut-off date situation. Little, if any forward movement of this cut-off date is likely during the next few months.
    • China: Will remain at the worldwide date.
    • India: Little if any movement.
    • Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
    • Philippines: Three to six weeks
  • EB4: Current
  • EB5: Current
  • Family-Sponsored worldwide dates:
    • F1: Two to four weeks.
    • F2A: No forward movement is expected.
    • F2B: Four to seven weeks.
    • F3: Four to six weeks.
    • F4: Two or three weeks.

DOS Visa Bulletin Predictions Made in November 2013:

The Department of State published their predictions on monthly cutoff date movement for early 2014:

  • EB1: Current
  • EB2:
    • Worldwide: Current
    • China: Three to five weeks
    • India: No forward movement
  • EB3:
    • Worldwide: This cut-off date has been advanced extremely rapidly during the past seven months in an effort to generate new demand. As the rate of applicants who are able to have action on their cases finalized increases, it could have a significant impact on the cut-off date situation. The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date should not be expected to continue beyond February.
    • China: Expected to remain at the worldwide date
    • India: No forward movement
    • Mexico: Expected to remain at the worldwide date
    • Philippines: Three to six weeks
  • EB4: Current
  • EB5: Current
  • Family-Sponsored worldwide dates:
    • F1: Three to five weeks
    • F2A: No forward movement, the Mexico cut-off date is likely to retrogress at some point
    • F2B: Three to five weeks
    • F3: Three to five weeks
    • F4: Two or three weeks

DOS Visa Bulletin Predictions Made in June 2013:

The Department of State published their predictions on monthly cutoff date movement for August to October of 2013:

  • EB1: Current
  • EB2:
    • Worldwide: Current
    • China: Up to two months
    • India: At this time it appears that the availability of "otherwise unused" Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.
  • EB3:
    • Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.
    • China: No additional movement
    • India: Up to 3 weeks
    • Mexico: No additional movement
    • Philippines: Up to 2 weeks
  • EB4: Current
  • EB5: Current
  • Family-Sponsored worldwide dates:
    • F1: Up to 5 weeks
    • F2A: Could become "Current" at some point during the coming months
    • F2B: 4 to 7 weeks
    • F3: 3 to 5 weeks
    • F4: 3 to 5 weeks

DOS Visa Bulletin Predictions Made in February 2013:

The Department of State published their predictions on monthly cutoff date movement for April to June of 2013:

  • EB1: Current
  • EB2:
    • Worldwide: Current
    • China: 3 to 6 weeks
    • India: no movement (potential risk of retrogressing further)
  • EB3:
    • Worldwide: 4 to 6 weeks
    • China: 2 to 3 months
    • India: up to 2 weeks
    • Mexico: 4 to 6 weeks
    • Philippines: up to 1 week
  • EB4: Current
  • EB5: Current (Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.)
  • Family-Sponsored:
    • F1: 3 to 4 weeks
    • F2A: 3 to 5 weeks
    • F2B: 3 to 5 weeks
    • F3: 1 to 2 weeks
    • F4: up to 2 weeks

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