The initiatives are brought up with very good intentions – there is no doubt about that. In fact, it is a key part of the Obama administration’s Startup America campaign, aimed to attract the world’s best and brightest to become America’s job-creating entrepreneurs.

However, the new policy immediately raised concerns among current EB-2 applicants – many of them have been waiting in queue for several years. The visa bulletin for August 2011 set the cutoff date for China and India EB2 categories to April 15, 2007, which means that you may be able to get a green card only if you started your immigration process nearly five years ago. EB3 preferences face even a longer wait, ranging from 6 to 10 years.

Given the current situation, increasing demand without increasing the supply of visa numbers doesn’t seem like a good way to reduce existing backlogs. So the initiative to allow new entrepreneurs to share the same pool of EB2 visa numbers could potentially worsen the retrogression. On the other hand, however, more jobs created by more startup companies are good for the economy, which in turn improves the political atmosphere necessary for a true immigration reform. What do you think? We posted a survey shortly after the USCIS announcement and here is the breakdown of 120 responses (a small sample size, but from people who truly care about immigration):

This is the first time for either category’s cut-off date to cross into 2007 since, well, the July 2007 visa bulletin fiasco. So after four years, people with 2007 priority dates are finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

Not everyone will immediately see I-485 approvals when their priority date becomes current. In fact it is pretty rare. USCIS processes eligible I-485 applications based on receiving date, security checks, and other factors, so it is not unusual for them to keep working on cases that are already current. However, since USCIS has pre-adjudicated so many I-485 applications, we do expect to see a large number of approval notices throughout July. You may want to check the green card tracker to see how many are still ahead of you, as of June 2011.

July 2011 Visa Bulletin also brings good news to people who missed the July 2007 VB madness, since this will the first time many of them are eligible to file I-485s.

Keep in mind that when the cutoff date is March 8, it means only applicants whose priority date is March 7 or earlier are eligible to file I-485 or receive green card approvals.

Below is an image showing EB2 retrogression for the last four year. We are beginning to see a trend now, which repeats year over year. The Y-axis is the number of years an EB2 applicant has to wait for a given month of visa bulletin publication:

Unfortunately Employment Third Preference (EB3) is still lingering. Other than Mexico, all other EB3 categories moved just a little bit. There is no doubt that many EB3 applicants would consider upgrading their cases to EB2. It remains to be seen if this becomes a trend, and if yes, what effect it will have on the overall visa bulletin development.

The image below reflects this sad reality graphically: EB-3 retrogression is generally worsening over the past four years. For India EB3, you are looking at 9-year wait as of July 2011, which means only people who started their green card journey 9 years ago are now eligible for approval. China EB3 isn’t much better, with a 7-year linger despite a relatively small number of people in queue (3811 total).  All other countries and regions are hovering around 5 – 6 years.

The visa bulletin cutoff dates can change quickly, as shown by Mexico EB3. This can be caused by several factors such as visa number shuffling, people switching to EB2, and even family-based immigrant number consumption. As a result, EB3 retrogression for certain countries might improve at some point as well. However, without a major immigration reform, the heavy EB3 backlog is unlikely to shrink much any time soon.

USCIS is supposed to release the pending EB I-485 inventory on a quarterly basis, but is apparently running late for the first quarter of 2011. The last release was on January 5, so the next one should be somewhere around mid April, including a couple weeks of lead time. So USCIS is roughly three weeks behind as of today (5/6/2011).

Last year’s inventory releases were generally three months apart, on March 8, May 27, October 1, and then January 5 of this year. The 5/27 – 10/1 gap was a little over four months, however.

Many readers have recently asked when they will see an update on the green card tracker, which uses the official I-485 inventory for the calculations. Honestly we don’t know, but we do expect USCIS to release the next inventory by the end of May.

On a side note, USCIS has indicated their intention to publish the family-bases I-485 inventory as well. If the delay of EB inventory continues, we wonder if USCIS is trying to synchronize them. If this is the case, the delay will be certainly understandable and actually very good news for those waiting in the family queue. This, of course, may be just our wishful thinking. The immigration agency made no commitment as to when or if they will release the family-sponsored I-485 data.

One recent change is about selecting your PD. We used to only ask for the month and year, but now you can provide the full date (month/day/year) to get a better estimate. To make it easier to input your priority date, we implemented an instant calendar. The benefit of having an actual PD is that we can now count the cases that fall in the same month as yours, but may have an earlier date. These cases are in fact ahead of you due to the fact that the visa bulletin sets cutoff dates on the 1st, 8th, 15th and 22nd of each month. To see how the new algorithm works, go to this page and check out the example at the bottom.

This change is necessary because in some months, the total number of pending cases for a given month is substantial. By counting the people who filed their applications in the same month as you, but may be ahead of you due to the way visa cutoff dates are determined, you will get a more realistic estimate of your place in line.

If you simply select the first day on the calendar, the result will be exactly the same as when you submit only your PD’s month and year.

We’re also working on some features such as synchronizing the pending I-485 inventory with other government released data. This is a work-in-progress, but your full priority date will come in handy when those functions are implemented.

Just a reminder, the green card tracker is only accurate if the USCIS’ pending I-485 inventory is accurate. Since USCIS is the sole authority for such data, their release has to be the only official source. There isn’t a better alternative at this moment.

Below is the change I just discussed:

Old interface:

New interface:

EB2 categories are obvious beneficiaries, with EB2 India expected to consume more of the “fall-down” visa numbers. The reason is that unused visas must be re-allocated based on priority date. Since India is more backlogged than China, visa numbers must go to India nationals with the earliest priority dates first. When the two countries reach similar cut-off dates, any remaining visa numbers will be split between China and India EB2 applicants.

This trend can be seen on our visa bulletin graph. In the past few years, India EB2 usually lags China, until July or August when EB1 numbers become available. The curve for EB2 India would drop faster, and eventually meet EB2 China. Then both would advance, albeit slowly, and start to separate in a new fiscal year with India becoming further retrogressed.

Unfortunately, EB3 categories, which are facing worse retrogression than EB2, will not be able to benefit from the unused EB1 visa numbers.

It is unclear how fast EB2 will advance in coming months. Hopefully at least six months before the end of FY2011. We’ll find out soon, as the May visa bulletin should be published around April 10th or so, less than two weeks away. For those of you who are getting close, good luck!

The US Department of Sate (DOS) has warned the public repeatedly that they do not send emails to Diversity Visa (DV) recipients. The department’s Kentucky Consular Center used to send letters via postal mail. However, starting this year, notifications will no longer be mailed to lottery winners. So, the only way you can learn about your DV status is online, using the only official government website at http://www.dvlottery.state.gov/. There is also a phone number, 202-663-1225, for people who have a need to speak to a visa specialist. If you are outside the United States, you may contact the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate for DV related questions.

Fraudulent businesses and individuals may claim to be affiliated with the U.S. government. Some promise you better chances of winning the green card lottery. They may also have websites that contain URL’s similar to government addresses, display official-looking emblems (American flags, eagles, statue of liberty, etc.), or have a Washington D.C. mailing address. In the end, they always want money. Do not reply to such emails. Don not send payment or any documents.

If you do receive an email or letter from a scammer, you can file a complaint at the FTC’s website https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/ or at http://www.econsumer.gov/. These complaints are used to assist law enforcement authorities worldwide in their investigation of criminal activities.

Below is an excerpt from the Canadian immigration authority’s website with regard to Visitor Visa Exemptions:

persons lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence who are in possession of their alien registration card (Green card) or can provide other evidence of permanent residence

If you are staying in the United States under a non-immigrant status, such as F-1, B-2 or H-1, you do need to obtain a visitor visa before travelling to Canada, if your country is on the list that requires visas. You may have heard of the “30-day rule (Automatic Revalidation),” but don’t confuse it with entering Canada because it is only referring to your return to the United States.

If you are already a U.S. citizen, you don’t need a visa to visit Canada or a long list of other countries. The Department of State publishes extensive country-specific information, including entry/exit requirements, for U.S. passport holders planning to travel abroad.

Let’s look at the figure below, which is generated by our Green Card Tracker:

The ROW category (Rest of the World: all countries other than China, India, Mexico and the Philippines) had a total of 40,429 pending EB3 cases in the October, 2010 inventory. For January, 2011, however, the number had increased to 47,627. And it happened without a single new I-485 filed – because the visa bulletin hasn’t been current since August of 2007.

Now what caused the sudden increase of 7,198 ROW EB3 cases? It is a huge number. Moreover, since USCIS has been processing older cases during the same three-month period, the actual addition should be even higher.

One logical explanation is that USCIS recently added cases held at field offices to the inventories. But I’m having a hard time believing such a large amount. All along USCIS has been saying that only a small number of I-485 applications are pending at local offices, and as you can imagine, 7,198 (more than 15% of the total) is certainly not a “small number.” In fact as of today the USCIS FAQ still says:

…there is a small population of cases within the jurisdiction of the Field Offices that are not included in this report. (inventory).

Maybe USCIS under-estimated the total number of pending I-485 cases at field offices. Maybe they simply missed a stack of EB3 applications at service centers and just started counting them in the January inventory. I won’t be shocked either way. But I do wish USCIS would have offered an explanation of some sort, to account for such a large discrepancy in one of their most useful reports.

For I-90, question 12 is asking for the class of admission with regard to your permanent residency. It is a three-letter code representing the immigrant category under which you became a permanent resident. If you have a newer version, you can find the code on the front side of your green card right under “Category.” It usually starts with a letter, then either a letter or number, and ends with a number. For example, RE8 would be the class of admission for the green card holder shown in the image below.

If you have an older green card, the category code may be under or next to Class or some other names. Its location on the card has also changed over time.

If you lost your green card and can’t find a copy, I guess you can put down “unknown” for class of admission. Hopefully USCIS will be able to process your request with other information you provided. Don’t write H-1B, EB2 or stuff like that.

Below is the official Form I-90 instructions for question #12:

12. Class of Admission – List the three letter code for the immigrant category under which you were granted permanent resident or conditional permanent resident status. This code can be found on your card, and it is typically one or two letters followed by a number.

May 9, 2011:
Update 1: What is Class of Admission on Form I-131
Update 2: Class of Admission Codes (82 page PDF, if you are interested)

To use the Entrant Status Check (ESC) Web site, you need to have your Submission Confirmation ready. The confirmation page was displayed when you successfully submitted your Diversity Visa (DV) lottery entry. More specifically, it contained your Entrant Confirmation Number, Last/Family Name (or blank if none), and Year of Birth. You must have this information in order to log into the website and check the status of your entry.

Your confirmation number should be 16 characters long, and start with 2011. For example: 20112O0DZWY3DOV9. Be sure to differentiate the letter O and number 0 (zero) when you enter it.

If the information you entered matches DOS record, you will be presented with an Authentication Code. Enter this code in the text field and click Submit. If you cannot recognize all characters, you may click the speaker symbol and hear an audio clip of the code, or refresh it to try a new one. Your status will be displayed after the authorization step.

If your entry was NOT selected, you should see a message like the one below:

“Based on the information provided, the Entry HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED for further processing for the 2011 Electronic Diversity Visa program …”

If your entry was selected for further processing, the status will be:

“Based on the information and confirmation number provided, you should have received a letter by mail from the United States Department of State’s Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) notifying you that your Diversity Visa entry was selected in the DV-2011 lottery.

If you have not yet received your selectee letter, please do not contact KCC until after August 1, 2010…”

If you still have not received the notification letter in the mail by August 1, 2010, and the website indicated that your entry was selected, you should contact KCC at kccdv@state.gov.

With RFID embedded in the new green card, a CBP officer is now able to read your card while you are still standing in line at the airport. This, hopefully, can get you through a port of entry a bit faster. But the problem is, anyone with a sophisticated reader can read the same information as well, all from a distance without you even knowing it.

Before you push the panic button, however, let me just say that USCIS isn’t playing around with all the hassle of redesigning the green card. They must have worked with LaserCard (the manufacturer) to make sure that any embedded data isn’t easily accessible by an unauthorized source. And people who can break an RFID encryption are probably working on other stuff than reading your green card anyway.

But it remains a privacy concern. Since you are supposed to carry your green card with you at all times, the thought that someone walking by may have just read your green card is simply uncomfortable. So you want to follow all instructions from USCIS with regard to the storage and carrying of your new card. In fact, according to Piers Fawkes at PSFK, his new green card arrived with a warning on the card sleeve:

We recommend use of this envelope to protect your new card and prevent wireless communication with it.

The little card holder is probably some sort of electromagnetically opaque sleeve that shields your green card from external readers. At a minimum, it will make contactless access to your RFID more difficult.

Wikipedia has a good article on RFID, with a large section dedicated to security and privacy risks of the technology. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) published a consumer report several years ago that had a section called The ABCs of RFID – another good read if you want to learn more:

In RFID systems, an item is tagged with a tiny silicon chip and an antenna; the chip plus antenna (together called a “tag”) can then be scanned by mobile or stationary readers, using radio waves (the “RF”). The chip can be encoded with a unique identifier, allowing tagged items to be individually identified by a reader (the “ID”).

Well, I think that is too far.

Sure, the data is incomplete. But it is something we never had before. Prior to September of 2009, if you had a pending I-485, all you knew was that you were standing in line waiting for the next visa bulletin. Now, with the inventory, you can find out approximately how many people are actually ahead of you. Even if USCIS doesn’t count all the pending cases, you now have a general idea of how long the line is, and more importantly, what position you are in.

USCIS clearly indicated that I-485 applications transferred to field offices are not included in the inventory. And it appears that they plan to add this missing piece in later releases. There has been much debate about the exact percentage, and I guess nobody knows until USCIS publishes the data, but we do know that the majority of employment-based AOS applications are being processed by service centers, not district or field offices.

Another source of missing cases in the inventory, as claimed by many, is that USCIS simply isn’t capable of counting! I’m not as pessimistic, however. After all, it is a database. Let’s look at the case status checking system first. How many people with a pending I-485 cannot find their case in the system? Not many, right? It is a non-scientific indication that the database at least contains the vast majority of I-485’s out there. With data being present, counting and sorting is a few queries away. And there are multiple ways to cross reference your results to make sure nothing is obviously off track.

Many people also question the accuracy of the data. I can’t guarantee the inventory is error-free; in fact I can pretty much guarantee there are errors. But it serves its purpose well, and is good enough to shed some light on a matter that traditionally has been a black box.

We want to push USCIS to further improve their reporting of the inventory data – no doubt about that. But we shouldn’t ignore what we already have, especially since there is nothing better right now. Let’s not tell a starving person to throw away the burger in hand, and just wait for a steak dinner.

When you receive your card you must carry it with you at all times if you are 18 or older. It is the law.

So there you go. The perfect answer.

However, I’m not sure how many people actually do that. Everyone knows, or should know, to bring their green card with them when travelling abroad, some may do so with domestic trips too, but carrying a green card in a wallet or purse everyday seems like an overkill.

The No. 1 reason for not carrying a green card appears to be the fear of losing it. Although a lost card can be easily replaced, the mere idea of waiting for it to arrive in the mail, again, could bring back nightmares. If you are one of those who waited 10 years for their I-485 to be approved, you know what I’m talking about. The legislators who made up that rule obviously didn’t have to go through the run-around, so they didn’t care.

Another reason, I suppose, is that people don’t see a need for it. How many times were you ever required to show your green card? Other than international travels, there are very few occasions. Even if you do need to use your green card, such as when applying for a home loan, you most likely will be notified ahead of time. Immigration raid in work places may be all over the media, but in reality, it is still a low probability event unless you work in an industry that draws the attention of ICE agents on a regular basis.

Having said that, however, I’m in no way suggesting that you break the law by not carrying your green card If you do decide – at your own risk – that you’d rather leave it in a safe place instead of your wallet, you should make several copies and save them in different places. Also make sure at least one other person knows the whereabout of your original green card. Some people carry a photocopy of the card with them, which might turn out to be a good idea sometimes.

Titled “Startup Visa Act of 2010,” the bill will grant a two-year conditional visa to an entrepreneur who can secure $250,000 or more for his/her start-up venture from a qualified U.S. investor. After two years, if the company has generated at least five full-time jobs in the U.S., attracted additional $1 million, or achieved at least $1 million in revenue, the immigrant founder will be able to remove the conditions and become permanent resident (green card).

We fully support this proposal. In fact, we have been promoting the same idea for over two years now. Here is what we said in our Immigration Reform section:

Create visa category for entrepreneurs
Expand EB-5 to include entrepreneurs. They will earn permanent residence not by how much money they bring to the U.S., but by how many jobs they can create. It rewards innovation, and might just allow a foreign student with a brilliant idea, but no money, to try and succeed.

This bill will not increase the total number of immigrant visas. Instead, it will create a new EB-6 visa category which draws visas from the existing EB-5 pool. EB-5 is basically rewarding entrepreneurs who are already successful outside the United States and therefore are capable of investing their own money to create U.S. jobs (this is why they are often called investor visas). EB-6, as a comparison, would offer the same reward (green card) to people who are not as rich, but have innovative ideas that are endorsed by angel or venture investors. Both EB5 and EB6 visa holders are given two years to prove their worth, by demonstrating the creation of new jobs or real growth, for example.

A group of 160 venture capitalists and investors are supporting this bill.

Just like any immigration reform bill, it will draw plenty of criticism. And just like any immigration reform bill introduced over the past few years, the odds of eventually becoming law are slim at best, no matter how reasonable they are.

Employment-Based First, Fourth and Fifth Preferences
For January 2010, all EB1, EB4 and EB5 categories remain current.

Employment-Based Second Preferences (EB-2)
All EB2 countries other than India and China are still current in January. For India-born applicants, the cutoff date is still 01/22/2005 – no change from the December 2009 visa bulletin. Applicants from mainland China saw their PD cut-off date advancing just one month, to 05/01/2005.

Employment-Based Third Preferences (EB-3)
The situation is not much better for EB-3; although all countries of chargeability moved forward, it was a 1 or 2-month advance across the board. For January, EB3 Worldwide, Philippines and China stand at 08/01/2002, while Mexico is one month behind at 07/01/2002, and India trailing by one year at 06/22/2001.

EB-3 Other Workers category has the same PD cutoff date for all countries: 06/01/2001.

How come EB cutoff dates didn’t move in recent months?
The Department of State offered an explanation in the January Visa Bulletin: At the end of FY 2009, which ended on September 30, 2009, many EB categories were “unavailable.” So when FY-2010 visas were released during October and November, the demand was very high because of the large number of eligible I-485 cases. USCIS was also processing green card applications at a fast pace, and may have pre-adjudicated many of them, which resulted a high depletion rate of visa numbers for the first quarter.

With older cases now near completion, another batch of visa numbers are being released, which is the reason why January has started to see some forward movement.

Projections for cut-off date movement for the remainder of FY-2010
The Department of State offered some predictions on visa availabilities from now to September. These projections are helpful in many ways, but should be treated as just estimates.

• EB-1 is likely to remain current for all countries of chargeability throughout FY-2010.
• EB-2, other than India and China, is also likely to remain current.
• EB-2 China and India will continue to be oversubscribed, and may even become “unavailable” if high demand depletes available visa numbers before the end of September.However, if there are unused visa numbers from a particular category during a calendar quarter, they may be made available to China and India (or other oversubscribed counties) without regard to per-country limitation. This is usually referred to as visa “rollover” or “spill-over” in the immigration community.In case of visa rollover, the same cutoff date is applied to each country receiving the extra visa numbers. So if EB2 India is still more retrogressed than China when that occurs, more visa numbers may go to EB2 India because there are more applicants with earlier priority dates.
• EB-3 is expected to move forward but continue to have cut-off dates for all countries. For this reason it is unlikely there will be any visa numbers unused.

In summary, DOS projects the following cutoff date movement for the remainder of FY2010 (best case scenario)

Family-based visa bulletin projections
Cutoff date movement in the family preferences has been relatively fast recently and DOS expects the trend to continue for at least a few more months. The reason is that fewer applicants are proceeding with their consular processing cases, as well as the low volume of FB adjustment of status cases. However, DOS warns that the movement may slow or even stop at some point, and certain categories may retrogress further if demand picks up.